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基础设施建设、保险市场需求,投资机遇在这里

经济日报 2020-06-29 17:14 30289

来自最新一期sigma报告,基础设施投资将成为新兴市场增长的关键引擎。未来20年,新兴市场每年将在基础设施建设方面投入2.2万亿美元。

请看详细报道↓↓↓

最新一期sigma报告指出,在新冠肺炎疫情危机之后,基础设施建设投资将成为新兴市场可持续增长的主要动力之一。

Investment in infrastructure development is set to be one of the main drivers of sustainable growth in the emerging markets after the COVID-19 crisis subsides, the latest sigma says.

首期出版于1968年的sigma 是瑞士再保险瑞再研究院的旗舰出版物。过去半个世纪以来,sigma期刊已成为一个值得信赖的保险市场信息来源,对宏观经济和监管环境及其对保险市场的影响提供了富有洞察力的分析。

Sigma is the flagship publication of Swiss Re Institute. It first published in 1968. For the past half-century, sigma has been a trusted source of information on the insurance market,offering the market insights on the macroeconomic and regulatory environment as well as its impact on insurance markets.

根据此次sigma报告预计,未来20年,新兴市场每年将在基础设施建设方面投入2.2万亿美元。

Emerging markets will invest USD 2.2 trillion in infrastructure annually according to estimates in the report.

预计能源行业(特别是可再生能源)、智慧和具有韧性的基础设施以及医疗卫生设施将是主要投资领域。

The energy sector, in particularrenewable energy, smart and resilient infrastructure, and healthcare facilities are expected to attract strong investment.

该报告预计,新兴市场基础设施将为包括保险公司在内的长期投资者提供每年高达9200亿美元的投资机遇。

The sigma estimates that emerging market infrastructure represents an annual investment that emerging market infrastructure represents an annual investment opportunity of USD 920 billion for long-term investors, including insurers.

在建设和运营阶段,基础设施项目也将产生新的保险需求。工程险、财产险和能源保险等业务将受益最大。

The construction and operational phases of infrastructure projects will also generate new demand for insurance solutions, with engineering, property and energy lines of business set to benefit most.

瑞士再保险集团首席经济学家安仁礼博士提出:“基础设施投资可以成为在新冠肺炎疫情之后重振经济的举措之一,有助于在未来十年推动经济强劲和可持续的增长。

"Spending on infrastructure could be one of the ways to kickstart parts of the economy after the COVID-19 pandemic and help drive strong and sustainable growth over the next decade," said Jerome Jean Haegeli, Group Chief Economist at Swiss Re.

“亚洲新兴市场将引领大部分基础设施投资,我们预计这里也将会是全球经济增长的引擎。”

“Most infrastructure spending will be in emerging Asia, which we also expect to be the engine of global economic growth."

在新冠肺炎疫情爆发之前,很多新兴市场就已启动多年期基础设施建设项目,预计相关投资下降幅度将不会像以前危机时那么大。

Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, many emerging markets had already put multi-year infrastructure projects into motion, and the associated investments are not expected to drop off to the same extent as seen in previous crisis Infrastructure periods.

疫情也凸显出很多新兴市场亟需加大对医疗卫生基础设施的投资力度。

The pandemic has also shown the urgent need for more investment in health infrastructure in many emerging markets.

考虑到包括疫情在内等因素造成的衰退冲击,未来十年,预计新兴市场年均增长率为4.4%,

Beyond the recession shock inflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic, emerging markets are forecast to grow by around 4.4% annually over the next decade,

低于2010-2019年5.5%的年均增幅,但远高于发达市场1.8%的预计增长率。

Slower than the yearly average of 5.5% in 2010-19, but much faster than the projected 1.8% growth in advanced markets.

疫情过后,全球经济面临供应链和生产能力受损、失业率升高、破产频发、债务负担加剧等不利影响。

In the aftermath of the pandemic, the global economy will face headwinds from impaired supply chains and production capacities, higher unemployment, bankruptcies and higher debt burdens.

而且,鉴于危机爆发前不少经济体就已缺乏韧性,全球增长态势疲软。

And, given the already-weak resilience of many economies before the onset of the crisis, global growth will return to subdued levels only.

在此背景之下,新兴市场需要提升劳动生产率、增加基础设施投资,从而提高韧性。这些举措进而会降低企业经营成本,并为资本形成和产出增长创造有利环境。

Against this backdrop, emerging markets need to become more resilient by improving productivity and increasing investment in infrastructure, which in turn can reduce businesses' operating costs and create an enabling environment for new capital formation and output growth.

安仁礼博士指出:“当前形势下,不论是数字技术日益普及,气候变化的影响逐渐显现,还是需要建立更具韧性的社会,这些都会增加新兴市场基础设施建设的需求,并确定其发展方向。”

“The realities of today, including an increasingly pervasive digital technology, the clear impact of climate change and the need to build more resilient societies, will increase demand for, and shape the direction of, infrastructure development in emerging markets,“ Haegeli said.

聚焦可再生能源和可持续基础设施

Focus on renewal and sustainable infrastructure

根据当前投资趋势和经济增长预测,sigma报告预计,新兴市场将倾向于能源基础设施投资(占比34%),其重点是可再生能源。

Based on current spending trends and economic growth forecasts, sigma estimates that the largest share of the estimated investment in emerging markets will be in energy infrastructure (34%), with a core focus on renewable energy.

随着许多国家加大温室气体减排力度,预计投资有望转向智慧和具有韧性的基础设施,

As many countries increase their efforts to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, investment is expected to pivot toward smart and resilient infrastructure –

其中,数据和数字技术将融合发力,以改善公共交通、公用事业、 废物处理、电站电网等互联网络和设施的监控和管理。

In which data and digital technology come together to improve monitoring and managing of connected networks such as public transport, utilities and waste disposal systems, as well as facilities like power stations and grids.

建设和升级现有基础设施,使其面对气候变化影响更具韧性,这也将成为可持续性投资中的关键领域。

Building and upgrading of existing infrastructure to become more resilient to climate change impacts will also be a key area of sustainable investment.

瑞士再保险亚洲再保险业务首席执行官及亚洲区总裁赫博山提出:“在未来几年中,亚洲的基础设施投资将超过世界任何其它地区,而新兴经济体将占其中的三分之一以上。”

“In the coming years, Asia will invest more in infrastructure than anywhere else in the world, with the region’s emerging economies accounting for more than a third of associated spend.”said Russell Higginbotham, Swiss Re Chief Executive Officer Reinsurance Asia.

“最关键的是,基础设施将通过提高生产率,带动可持续增长。此外,随着收入和城镇化水平提高,基础设施需求结构也会变化。”

"Critically, infrastructure will enable sustainable growth by fostering improved productivity; while rising incomes and a continuing trend of urbanisation will mean that the composition of infrastructure needs will also evolve."

保险公司提供长期投资

Insurers as long-term investors…

一直以来,新兴市场主要依靠公共资金来满足其基础设施需求。

Traditionally, emerging markets have relied mostly on public funding for their infrastructure needs.

在政府预算紧张的情况下,私营部门将通过公商合作伙伴关系(PPP)以及融资嵌入式风险转移机制发挥更大作用。

With government budgets under strain, the private sector will play a bigger role via public-private partnerships, and with finance embedded risk transfer solutions.

PPP 可以带动创新、提升效率,通过使用 PPP方式,政府可以将日常运营外包,并优化预算和资源配置。

The benefits of private-sector participation (PPP) include innovation and efficiency gains and by using PPP, governments can outsource day-to-day operations and reallocate budget and resources.

根据 sigma 报告,新兴市场的基础设施投资将为包括全球保险公司在内的长期投资者提供年均 9200 亿美元的投资机遇。

The infrastructure sector in emerging markets presents an annual USD 920 billion opportunity for long-term investors, including global insurers, according to the sigma.

通过缩小各地区的基础设施缺口,保险公司还可以助力新兴市场的可持续发展。

Insurers can further support sustainable growth in emerging markets by closing the infrastructure gap in different regions.

在长期低利率环境下,基础设施项目可以产生较高回报,帮助保险公司进行长期负债的资产匹配。

With interest rates set to remain low, infrastructure projects can deliver attractive yields to help insurers match their long-term liabilities.

通过这些项目,还有机会实现地区和资产类别多元化,并投资于环保和社会责任等用途。

These projects also offer an opportunity for regional and asset class diversification, and for investment in environmentally and socially-responsible initiatives.

sigma 报告指出,未来 20 年,决定各新兴市场发展差异的一个关键因素在于,它们能否施行市场化政策框架,使基础设施成为标准化、可交易的资产类别,并降低关税复杂性和实现财政审慎性。

A key differentiator for emerging markets in the next 20 years will be their ability to commit to policies that favour market-friendly frameworks to make infrastructure a standardised and tradable asset class, as well as low tariff complexity and fiscal prudence, the sigma says.

能够做到以上各点的市场将能更容易地吸引外商进行基础设施(和其他)投资,从而增加强增长的后劲和韧性。

Markets that embrace these directives will be able to attract infrastructure (and other) investments more easily also from foreign investors,and consequently build stronger economic growth and resilience.

根据sigma报告,未来10年,根据七大新兴市场(巴西、中国、印度、印尼、墨西哥、俄罗斯和泰国)的预计投资水平测算,潜在总保费规模将超过

500亿美元。

The sigma estimates a total premiumopportunity of more than USD 50 billion over the next 10 years, based on projected levels of investment across the largest seven emerging markets (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, and Thailand).

在各条业务线当中,工程险受益最大(建筑工程一切险保费有望达到220亿美元)。在运营阶段,财产险保费预计将达194亿美元。

Among lines of business, engineering – with construction-all-risk premiums estimated to be USD 22 billion – is expected to benefit the most. In the operation phase, property premiums are estimated to reach USD 19.4 billion,

预计到2030年代中期,中国将成为全球最大的保险市场。

There will alsobe increased demand for marine and liability insurance. Once again China, oncourse to be the world’s biggest insurance market by the mid-2030s,

在此过程中,中国将成为大多数与基础设施相关的保险业务集中的地区,占未来十年保费收入的60%。

Will be where most infrastructure-related insurance business is concentrated, accounting for 60% of the premiums over the coming decade.

来源:经济日报微信公众号(ID:jjrbwx),图表由瑞士再保险集团提供

记者:外企头条工作室 陈颐 朱琳

编辑:王荆阳

监制:姜帆

本文内容系原创,转载请注明来源。

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